See what the crowd prices, who is trading, and whether liquidity and outside evidence support the odds.
Activity cooled. The decline survived removing Kalshi.
Polymarket wallets fell 8% and trading fell alongside them. Across venues, the latest complete month fell 14%.Newly seen wallet share rose 0.9 points from the prior week. Wallets are addresses, not people.
Completed-order trading across the tracked venues fell 14% in August. Kalshi still carried 72%.
Trading outside Kalshi fell even faster. The market-wide slowdown was not created by one venue.
| Venue | Trading since coverage began | Wallets | Trades per wallet | Trading per wallet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $70.67bn | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Polymarket | $29.65bn | 3,174,308 | 227 | $9k |
| Opinion | $13.48bn | 256,688 | 45 | $53k |
| Polymarket (US) | $7.16bn | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Predict | $2.12bn | 454,198 | 97 | $5k |
| Limitless | $1.81bn | 313,809 | 49 | $6k |
| Other | $607.0mn | 79,960 | 173 | $8k |
Trading per wallet is an activity check, not a quality score. Automated and repeated orders can raise it. Missing wallet coverage stays missing.
Average daily active wallets fell 8% across the latest seven complete days. Newly seen wallets were 5.4% of activity, up from 4.5%.
One person may control several wallets. Newly seen means first observed inside this 120-day sample, not new to Polymarket for all time.
Sports supplied 69% of Polymarket trading in the latest 30 complete days. Outside sports, Crypto was largest at 19%.
Subject share measures completed trading, not public importance or the number of distinct people interested.
Each market earned its place through recent trading, movement, tail-risk interest, or a close call. Price alone was not enough.
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The braid does not create a trust score. It keeps the outcome price, recent move, buyer-seller gap, trading, and waiting liquidity separate.
The named event price is placed beside same-asset headline language. The rails stop apart because headline tone is not a probability and does not prove trader conviction.
This is not event-matched public discussion. It is a narrower same-asset comparison, shown only when both sides pass minimum activity checks.
$248k traded since open. $35k waiting. 3.0-point buyer-seller gap. 231 stored estimates across 7 days. That record is too short for an accuracy claim.
A large difference is a reason to inspect assumptions, not an automatic trade or a promise that either estimate is right.
The venue comparison is only as fresh as its slowest required dataset, through 04 Sep 2026, 16:59 UTC. Live prices were checked later and can move between editions. Wallets are not people. Tag rules can misclassify a subject. Trading and liquidity can be repeated or automated, and neither proves an outcome is true.