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Coin traits, tested

Peer reviewed · two independent checks re-derived every figure from the raw inputs and reached the same conclusions, 20 September 2026

This page in one lineThis page sorts the big coins into five buckets by one simple trait each month, then checks which buckets made money, to see which traits were actually worth paying attention to.

Which Coin Traits Made Money?

Across 80 large coins from 2024-04-30 to 2026-08-31, the trait that paid best after trading costs was “Calm coins”: its top bucket beat its bottom bucket by +3.0% a month on average and was ahead in 64% of months. The weakest was “Busy coins” at -3.0% a month. 2 of 5 traits paid after costs and were ahead in more months than they lost.

Last checked 20 September 2026 · 18:19 UTC

Best trait after costsCalm coins+3.0% a month, top bucket minus bottom

Months the best trait was ahead64%of 28 months tested

Traits that paid2 of 5Positive after costs and ahead in most months

Coins in the test80Large coins with at least 400 days of trading

How does the test work?

Picture five buckets. Every month-end, the coins trading at the time (up to 80) are lined up by one trait and dealt into the buckets: the strongest fifth in bucket 1, the weakest fifth in bucket 5. Equal money goes into every coin in a bucket. A month later, the buckets are counted and the coins are dealt again. If a trait matters, bucket 1 should beat bucket 5, and it should do so in most months. Here is the whole market for comparison: Bitcoin and an equal-money mix of every coin.

This is the backdrop. Any trait has to be judged against what simply holding would have done.

Charlie’s readThe period includes both rising and falling stretches, which is what you want. A trait that only works in a rising market is a market bet wearing a costume.

Trait: Calm coins

Coins whose price wobbled least day to day over the last month. Bucket 1 holds the coins this trait favours, as just described; bucket 5 holds the coins it favours least. The bars show the average return of each bucket in the month after sorting.

Bucket 1 minus bucket 5: +3.2% a month before costs, +3.0% after. Ahead in 64% of 28 months. Without Bitcoin and Ether in the pool: +3.3%. On average 78 coins had this trait measured each month.

Charlie’s readA clean staircase from bucket 1 down to bucket 5 is the signature of a trait that matters. This one is a staircase with one step out of place (bucket 5), so the trait mostly works as described. About 16 coins sat in each bucket.

What this does not mean. One trait working in this period does not mean it will work next month. The hit rate tells you how often it showed up, not whether it will.

Trait: Losers bounce back

Coins that fell most over the last month go in the top bucket. Bucket 1 holds the coins this trait favours, as just described; bucket 5 holds the coins it favours least. The bars show the average return of each bucket in the month after sorting.

Bucket 1 minus bucket 5: +0.7% a month before costs, +0.4% after. Ahead in 54% of 28 months. Without Bitcoin and Ether in the pool: +0.6%. On average 78 coins had this trait measured each month.

Charlie’s readA clean staircase from bucket 1 down to bucket 5 is the signature of a trait that matters. Bucket 1 beats bucket 5 here, but the middle buckets are jumbled, so the gap at the ends is there while the ordering inside it is noise. About 16 coins sat in each bucket.

What this does not mean. One trait working in this period does not mean it will work next month. The hit rate tells you how often it showed up, not whether it will.

Trait: Not crowded

Coins where few traders were paying a fee to bet on a rise over the last month (a low funding payment). Low means the crowd has not piled in; high means it has. Bucket 1 holds the coins this trait favours, as just described; bucket 5 holds the coins it favours least. The bars show the average return of each bucket in the month after sorting.

Bucket 1 minus bucket 5: -1.3% a month before costs, -1.4% after. Ahead in 54% of 28 months. Without Bitcoin and Ether in the pool: -1.0%. On average 69 coins had this trait measured each month.

Charlie’s readA clean staircase from bucket 1 down to bucket 5 is the signature of a trait that matters. Here the staircase runs the wrong way: the coins in bucket 1 did worse than those in bucket 5. The trait still tells you something, just the opposite of what its name suggests. About 14 coins sat in each bucket.

What this does not mean. One trait working in this period does not mean it will work next month. The hit rate tells you how often it showed up, not whether it will.

Trait: Winners keep winning

Coins that rose most over the last three months, ignoring the most recent week. Bucket 1 holds the coins this trait favours, as just described; bucket 5 holds the coins it favours least. The bars show the average return of each bucket in the month after sorting.

Bucket 1 minus bucket 5: -1.6% a month before costs, -1.8% after. Ahead in 39% of 28 months. Without Bitcoin and Ether in the pool: -1.6%. On average 77 coins had this trait measured each month.

Charlie’s readA clean staircase from bucket 1 down to bucket 5 is the signature of a trait that matters. Here the staircase runs the wrong way: the coins in bucket 1 did worse than those in bucket 5. The trait still tells you something, just the opposite of what its name suggests. About 15 coins sat in each bucket.

What this does not mean. One trait working in this period does not mean it will work next month. The hit rate tells you how often it showed up, not whether it will.

Trait: Busy coins

Coins where the most money changed hands over the last month. Bucket 1 holds the coins this trait favours, as just described; bucket 5 holds the coins it favours least. The bars show the average return of each bucket in the month after sorting.

Bucket 1 minus bucket 5: -2.9% a month before costs, -3.0% after. Ahead in 36% of 28 months. Without Bitcoin and Ether in the pool: -3.4%. On average 78 coins had this trait measured each month.

Charlie’s readA clean staircase from bucket 1 down to bucket 5 is the signature of a trait that matters. Here the staircase runs the wrong way: the coins in bucket 1 did worse than those in bucket 5. The trait still tells you something, just the opposite of what its name suggests. About 16 coins sat in each bucket.

What this does not mean. One trait working in this period does not mean it will work next month. The hit rate tells you how often it showed up, not whether it will.

Which traits paid, before and after the toll?

Every time a coin moves into or out of a bucket, it has to be bought or sold. That costs money. The first bar is the raw gap between bucket 1 and bucket 5; the second bar charges 0.10% for every entry and exit. A trait that swaps most of its coins every month pays a heavy toll.

Monthly figures. The first bar of each pair is before costs, the second after. Multiply by roughly 12 for a rough yearly sense, but remember the months are not all alike.

Charlie’s readThe toll changes the ranking less than you might fear, because each bucket holds around 16 coins and only some of them change each month. “Calm coins” survives it best; “Busy coins” is negative either way.

What this does not mean. 0.10% per trade is fair for a small account on a large exchange. Big money moving fast pays more, and thinly traded coins (few buyers and sellers) cost more still.

How often was each trait ahead?

An average can be carried by one huge month. The hit rate cannot: it counts the share of months where bucket 1 beat bucket 5, no matter by how much. A coin flip lands at 50%.

28 months tested. Above 60% starts to look like more than chance; below 50% means the trait lost more months than it won.

Charlie’s read“Calm coins” was ahead in 64% of months, so its average was not one lucky month. “Busy coins” was ahead in only 36%.

What this does not mean. A 60% hit rate over 28 months is about 17 wins. That is suggestive, not settled; a coin could do it now and then.

What did $100 do in the best trait’s buckets?

Follow $100 through bucket 1 of “Calm coins”, through its bucket 5, and through plain Bitcoin. Costs are charged on the buckets.

Each bucket line is charged its own share of the trading toll, since each bucket does its own buying and selling.

Charlie’s readThe gap between the two bucket lines is the trait. If the lines braid together, the trait is noise. If they pull apart and stay apart, it is doing work.

What this does not mean. Bucket 1 can lose money in a falling market and still be the right bucket. The test is the gap, not the level.

Did the traits work every year, or just once?

The same gap, split by calendar year. A trait that is positive in every year is far more believable than one that made all its money in a single stretch.

Trait	2024 avg monthly gap	2025 avg monthly gap	2026 avg monthly gap	Months ahead
Calm coins	+4.9%	+4.4%	-0.4%	64%
Losers bounce back	+5.7%	-1.5%	-0.9%	54%
Not crowded	+0.1%	-3.9%	+1.3%	54%
Winners keep winning	-4.1%	-1.5%	+0.7%	39%
Busy coins	-4.2%	-1.8%	-3.4%	36%

Charlie’s readRead across each row. Consistent signs across years is the thing to look for; a row that flips sign every year is a trait that depends on the weather.

What this does not mean. The first and last years are partial years, so their averages rest on fewer months.

What should you do with this?

Two kinds of reader use this page. One runs money for other people and has rules to follow. The other is deciding about their own savings. The same evidence leads to different actions.

If you run money for others

Funds, trading teams, the people who manage a company’s cash, research teams.

You manage a group of coins and give no extra weight to “Calm coins”Test giving those coins a little more weight, using your own trading-cost numbers. The staircase shape here is the evidence that it is worth the work.
A trait’s staircase is out of order in the middleUse it only for the extremes: avoid bucket 5 rather than chase bucket 1.
You are quoted a trait return without costsAsk how many coins get swapped each month. A trait that swaps most of its coins monthly loses a large share of its edge to the toll.

If it is your own money

Anyone deciding what to do with their own savings.

You are choosing which large coins to holdThe traits that paid here are cheap to check yourself: look at how little a coin’s price wobbled over the last month, and look at how much a coin fell over the last month.
You hold coins that sit in bucket 5 of a paying traitThat is the group the trait says to avoid, and on average it trailed bucket 1. It does not mean sell today, but it does mean know why you hold them.
You want to copy bucket 1 exactlyAround 16 coins, re-sorted every month, with a fee each time, is a lot of work for most people. Use the idea to avoid the worst bucket rather than to chase the best.

The conclusion

What this page is

A monthly bucket test of five simple coin traits across the large, actively traded coins.

Why it matters

Most coin picking is done on stories. This asks the boring question first: which measurable traits have actually paid, and how often.

How it is useful

It tells you which traits deserve a place in your thinking and which sound clever but did not pay, and it shows you what the toll of trading takes away.

“Calm coins” paid best after costs, ahead in 64% of months. 2 of the five traits paid after costs and won more months than they lost. “Busy coins” did not pay.

Words used on this page

Every technical word above is explained again here, in plain English.

BucketOne fifth of the coins, grouped by how they score on a trait. When the count does not divide by five, the spare coins go to the middle buckets.
TraitA simple, measurable feature of a coin, like how much it rose last quarter.
Spread or gapBucket 1’s return minus bucket 5’s return in the same month.
TollThe trading cost charged whenever a coin enters or leaves a bucket: 0.10% each way.
Hit rateThe share of months in which bucket 1 beat bucket 5.
Equal moneyThe same dollar amount in every coin in a bucket, so no single coin dominates.
FundingA fee that passes between traders of a coin’s futures (contracts that bet on its price), paid by whichever side is more crowded to the other side.
FuturesContracts that let traders bet on a coin’s price without owning the coin.
Turnover or swappedThe share of a bucket’s coins that were swapped out at a month-end.
Large coinsThe coins with the biggest total market value today that trade on a large exchange with at least 400 days of history.
Betting againstMaking money if a coin falls instead of rises. Traders do this with futures; it carries extra costs that this page does not charge.
Before costs, after costsBefore costs is the raw gap between the buckets. After costs subtracts the trading toll.

Where this page could be wrong

The coins are the ones that are large today. Coins that collapsed and vanished are not in the history, which flatters every bucket a little, and coins that started trading during the period join once they have enough history.
The “Not crowded” trait can only be measured for coins with futures, so it runs on a slightly smaller set than the other four.
The bucket 1 minus bucket 5 gap behaves like owning one bucket and betting against the other; betting against coins has extra costs that are not charged here.
Two to three years of monthly tests is a short record. Some traits take a decade to prove.
Prices come from one large exchange. Other exchanges can differ slightly.
Costs are a flat 0.10% per trade. Real costs vary by coin and by size.
Everything here is about the past. It describes what paid, not what will.