The dispersion regime

This page shows whether choosing between large coins changed the outcome. It checks how far apart they moved and how closely they travelled, then keeps those two answers separate.

Sometimes the only choice that matters is whether to be here at all.

Over the last 60 days these 24 coins moved apart by 1.87% on a typical day, against a six-month middle of 2.19%, and travelled together at +0.58 against a middle of +0.41. The best of them returned +163.4% and the worst -13.4% over the same weeks. The gap between holdings is 177 points; after removing both extremes it is 132 points. Taken together, the two readings say the market moved more as one block. Daily moves were narrower than usual and the coins travelled more closely together.

+0.30+0.41+0.52+0.631.5%2.0%2.4%2.9%2026-05-11: travelled together +0.44, moved apart 2.19% a day2026-05-14: travelled together +0.45, moved apart 2.14% a day2026-05-17: travelled together +0.45, moved apart 2.14% a day2026-05-20: travelled together +0.42, moved apart 2.14% a day2026-05-23: travelled together +0.47, moved apart 2.11% a day2026-05-26: travelled together +0.44, moved apart 2.14% a day2026-05-29: travelled together +0.39, moved apart 2.19% a day2026-06-01: travelled together +0.36, moved apart 2.19% a day2026-06-04: travelled together +0.35, moved apart 2.30% a day2026-06-07: travelled together +0.38, moved apart 2.35% a day2026-06-10: travelled together +0.40, moved apart 2.49% a day2026-06-13: travelled together +0.40, moved apart 2.49% a day2026-06-16: travelled together +0.40, moved apart 2.50% a day2026-06-19: travelled together +0.39, moved apart 2.51% a day2026-06-22: travelled together +0.40, moved apart 2.55% a day2026-06-25: travelled together +0.40, moved apart 2.59% a day2026-06-28: travelled together +0.38, moved apart 2.59% a day2026-07-01: travelled together +0.38, moved apart 2.61% a day2026-07-04: travelled together +0.40, moved apart 2.61% a day2026-07-07: travelled together +0.41, moved apart 2.55% a day2026-07-10: travelled together +0.41, moved apart 2.51% a day2026-07-13: travelled together +0.40, moved apart 2.50% a day2026-07-16: travelled together +0.41, moved apart 2.50% a day2026-07-19: travelled together +0.42, moved apart 2.42% a day2026-07-22: travelled together +0.42, moved apart 2.36% a day2026-07-25: travelled together +0.41, moved apart 2.31% a day2026-07-28: travelled together +0.43, moved apart 2.22% a day2026-07-31: travelled together +0.45, moved apart 2.06% a day2026-08-03: travelled together +0.46, moved apart 1.96% a day2026-08-06: travelled together +0.39, moved apart 1.91% a day2026-08-09: travelled together +0.41, moved apart 1.85% a day2026-08-12: travelled together +0.39, moved apart 1.81% a day2026-08-15: travelled together +0.37, moved apart 1.81% a day2026-08-18: travelled together +0.39, moved apart 1.71% a day2026-08-21: travelled together +0.47, moved apart 1.70% a day2026-08-24: travelled together +0.55, moved apart 1.75% a day2026-08-27: travelled together +0.56, moved apart 1.85% a day2026-08-30: travelled together +0.57, moved apart 1.87% a day2026-09-02: travelled together +0.57, moved apart 1.85% a day2026-09-05: travelled together +0.58, moved apart 1.87% a daynowHOW CLOSELY THEY TRAVEL TOGETHERHOW FAR APART THEY MOVEchoosing decides most of itwide, but still joinedquiet, not tightly joinedonly one decision matters

Six months, traced as a path.

Across: how closely the coins travelled together. Up: how far apart they moved on a given day. Each dot is one 60-day window, stepped forward three days at a time, and the ring marks where the market stands now.

The dotted lines are the six-month middle for each reading. They make four honest cases: wide and separate, wide but together, quiet but separate, or quiet and together. The current case is the market moved more as one block.

Where the market has been
Where it stands now
Further up means the choice mattered more
How far apart they move1.87%a day, against a six-month middle of 2.19%.
How closely they travel+0.58against a six-month middle of +0.41.
Best minus worst holding177 pointsZcash +163.4% against Canton -13.4%.
Without best and worst132 pointsUniswap against Gram (prev. Toncoin). The gap survives the two extremes.

Each coin against the group.

How closely each one travelled with the median of the others over the last 60 days, what it did over that window, and how much it swung day to day. A low travelling figure is not a recommendation: it means whatever moves that coin is mostly not what moves the rest.

Each coin with how closely it travelled with the rest of the group, its move over the window, and its own daily swing.
CoinTravels with the groupMove over the windowIts own daily swing
Bitcoin BTC+0.72+29.0%2.04%
Ethereum ETH+0.65+44.3%3.10%
BNB BNB+0.62+32.5%1.79%
XRP XRP+0.71+30.5%3.60%
Solana SOL+0.63+36.9%2.71%
TRON TRXfar from the middle of the group+0.42+2.1%0.90%
Zcash ZECfar from the middle of the group+0.59+163.4%6.29%
Hyperliquid HYPE+0.50+30.1%4.00%
Dogecoin DOGE+0.77+25.5%3.13%
Rain RAINmoves on its own+0.17+14.7%4.12%
Monero XMRmoves on its ownfar from the middle of the group+0.09+68.8%2.64%
Chainlink LINKfar from the middle of the group+0.67+73.4%3.35%
WhiteBIT Coin WBT+0.73+34.3%2.92%
LEO Token LEOmoves on its ownfar from the middle of the group+0.08-1.3%1.42%
Cardano ADA+0.67+33.8%3.78%
Stellar XLM+0.76+3.5%3.00%
Bitcoin Cash BCH+0.61+10.9%4.42%
Uniswap UNIfar from the middle of the group+0.43+122.5%4.72%
Canton CCfar from the middle of the group+0.49-13.4%3.97%
Litecoin LTC+0.66+26.0%2.42%
Gram (prev. Toncoin) GRAMfar from the middle of the group+0.56-9.6%2.45%
Hedera HBAR+0.63+17.6%2.27%
Avalanche AVAX+0.60+22.2%2.91%
Sui SUI+0.74+14.2%3.43%
Charlie's analysisTwo readings, kept apart on purpose. How far apart the coins move on a day says whether the choice between them changed your outcome. How closely they travel over a stretch says whether one force is driving all of them. Right now they moved apart 1.87% a day against a middle of 2.19%, while travelling together at +0.58 against +0.41. Blending those into one number would hide the two mixed cases: a market can move widely while still travelling as one, or move quietly while individual coins follow different paths. This board is currently in the the market moved more as one block quadrant.

What the choice was actually worth.

The full spread is shown beside the same result after removing the best and worst coin. That checks whether two unusual names created the whole story.

Charlie's analysisThe spread between the best and worst holding over the last 60 days is 177 points. That is the dispersion reading expressed as an outcome rather than a statistic. Remove the best and worst coin and the spread is still 132 points, between Uniswap and Gram (prev. Toncoin). The gap therefore does not disappear with its two most extreme observations. Across the same window the loosest coin on the board, LEO Token, travelled with the others at +0.08 while the tightest, Dogecoin, read +0.77.

What argues against it.

Charlie's analysisA wide field is not the same as a useful one. Dispersion says the prize for choosing correctly is large; it says nothing at all about anyone's ability to claim it, and it punishes a wrong choice by exactly the amount it rewards a right one. There is a second caution in the numbers themselves: the two readings here do not always move together, and over six months this market has run from +0.35 to +0.58 on one and 1.70% to 2.61% on the other. Anyone measuring once and treating the answer as permanent would have been wrong inside a month.

Questions this page can answer.

Every answer below is drawn from the readings on this page and nothing else. The last one is refused.

Is picking worth anything?Why two readings?Where has it been? What did the choice pay?Which move on their own?Is research more useful? What was left outWhich coin should I pick?

Is choosing between coins worth anything right now?

The short answer: the market moved more as one block. Over the last 60 days the coins moved apart by 1.87% on a typical day, against a six-month middle of 2.19%. They travelled together at +0.58 against a middle of +0.41. Daily moves were narrower than usual and the coins travelled more closely together.

How far apart they moved, now1.87%
The six-month middle2.19%
How closely they travelled, now+0.58
The six-month middle+0.41

The two correlation readings are drawn at ten times scale so they can share an axis with the percentage ones. The figures beside them are the real numbers.

What are the two readings, and why not just one?

Because they answer different questions and a market can do one without the other. How far apart the coins moved on a day says whether the choice between them changed your outcome that day. How closely they travelled over a stretch says whether one force is driving all of them. A market can be violent and still one-directional, where everything falls together and picking the best coin only decides how much you lost. Blending the two into a single score would hide exactly the case worth spotting.

No chart. This is a distinction between the two readings already drawn above.

Where has the market been over the last six months?

It has moved. How closely the coins travelled together ranged from +0.35 to +0.58, and how far apart they moved ranged from 1.70% to 2.61% a day. The picture above traces that path, three days at a step, and marks where it stands now. Anyone who measured this once and treated the answer as permanent would have been wrong within a month.

The path at the top of this page is that reading, drawn in full.

How much did the choice actually change the outcome?

Over the last 60 days the best of these 24 coins returned +163.4% and the worst -13.4%. That is a spread of 177 points between holding one thing and holding another inside the same asset class over the same weeks. Remove both extremes and the spread is still 132 points, from Uniswap to Gram (prev. Toncoin). That second reading shows how much of the headline survives without the two coins most likely to distort it.

Zcash+163.4%
Uniswap+122.5%
Chainlink+73.4%
Monero+68.8%
Ethereum+44.3%
Solana+36.9%
WhiteBIT Coin+34.3%
Cardano+33.8%
BNB+32.5%
XRP+30.5%
Hyperliquid+30.1%
Bitcoin+29.0%
Litecoin+26.0%
Dogecoin+25.5%
Avalanche+22.2%
Hedera+17.6%
Rain+14.7%
Sui+14.2%
Bitcoin Cash+10.9%
Stellar+3.5%
TRON+2.1%
LEO Token-1.3%
Gram (prev. Toncoin)-9.6%
Canton-13.4%

Each coin's move over the last 60 days.

Which coins are actually moving on their own?

LEO Token travels with the rest of the group at +0.08, the loosest on the board. Dogecoin is the tightest at +0.77. A coin with a low reading is not necessarily a better holding; it means whatever moves it is mostly not what moves the others, so it will not do what the group does when the group does something.

LEO Token+0.08
Monero+0.09
Rain+0.17
TRON+0.42
Uniswap+0.43
Canton+0.49
Hyperliquid+0.50
Gram (prev. Toncoin)+0.56
Zcash+0.59
Avalanche+0.60
Bitcoin Cash+0.61
BNB+0.62
Hedera+0.63
Solana+0.63
Ethereum+0.65
Litecoin+0.66
Chainlink+0.67
Cardano+0.67
XRP+0.71
Bitcoin+0.72
WhiteBIT Coin+0.73
Sui+0.74
Stellar+0.76
Dogecoin+0.77

How closely each coin travelled with the median of the others over the last window.

Does a scattered market mean research is more useful?

It means selection has more room to matter, which is not the same thing. When everything moves together, being right about which coin to hold changes very little, so no amount of good analysis pays. When things move apart, the difference between a good choice and a bad one is large. That is a statement about the size of the prize, not about anybody's ability to win it. A wide field rewards skill and punishes its absence by the same amount.

No chart. This is what the readings above do and do not support.

What has been left out?

0 coins could not be read. Coins pegged to a dollar are excluded on purpose: something engineered not to move would pull the whole dispersion reading down and tell you nothing. Wrapped and staked versions of coins already in the list are excluded too, because holding both halves of the same asset would count one thing twice and make the group look more united than it is. Every reading is taken on the 180 days on which all 24 reported. The group is selected from coins that are large today, not from a ranking frozen six months ago. Coins that fell out of the leading group are therefore absent, so this is a reading of today's large-coin cohort, not the whole market that existed at the start.

No chart. An account of what was excluded, not a measurement.

So which coin should I pick?

Not answered here, and this page is deliberately the one that cannot answer it. It measures whether picking is worth doing at all, which is a question about the market rather than about any coin in it. A wide field means a good choice pays more and a bad one costs more, and nothing on this page tells you which of those you are about to make.

Refused. The data cannot support the question.

What would make this reading wrong.

Charlie's analysisThis reading could be too flattering because it starts with coins that are large now. Coins that were large at the beginning and later fell away are not in the group. A different frozen list would give a different answer. One unusual coin could also pull the headline spread up, which is why the page publishes both the full 177-point spread and the 132-point result after removing the best and worst. And it is a description of 2026-03-12 to 2026-09-07, a window that has already closed, not a statement about the weeks ahead.

Research by for Charlie Quant Lab