Bitcoin versus the outside market
The Correlation That Left
Stocks rose. Bitcoin fell. Fear stayed quiet.
Bitcoin is 28.9% lower over the year while the S&P is 18.8% higher. High-yield spreads are 2.65% and the VIX is 14.3, so the split is not explained by broad market panic.
First, put the clocks together.
The S&P closes late in New York. The crypto snapshot arrives at midnight. The next midnight is the only offset with a clear one-year peak, so that is the pairing used below.
The next-midnight link is +0.45, against +0.07 on the same calendar date. The clock changes the answer; it does not change either market.
The year split in two.
Both lines begin at 100. Each U.S. close is paired with the following crypto midnight so the two readings describe the same trading stretch.
BitcoinS&P 500
Bitcoin trails the S&P by 47.8 percentage points over the year. A low VIX and tight credit spreads say this was not a general flight from risk.
What “left” means
A link near +1 means the two markets usually moved in the same daily direction. Zero means no clear daily link. A negative reading means they often moved opposite ways.
The 30-session link is +0.11. The longer one-year link is +0.45. The short relationship has broken more sharply than the long one.
The divergence-day count
A divergence day is a shared market day when the S&P rose while Bitcoin fell at least one percentage point more. It is a fixed rule, not a hand-picked headline.
Last 60 sessions
6 divergence days.
Current run
0 consecutive days. Zero means the latest shared day did not qualify.
Longest run this year
4 consecutive qualifying days.
What followed earlier breaks?
An episode begins when Bitcoin falls at least 15 percentage points behind the S&P over 30 shared sessions. The bar is Bitcoin's next 30-session move.
Bitcoin was higher 30 shared sessions later in 0 of 3 prior completed episodes (0%). That is a small one-year sample, not a trading promise.