Signal Autopsy

3 of 9 popular indicators still worked on later prices after all 54 tests were counted.

This page tests popular market rules on later prices, counts every attempted time window and shows when a striking result depends on one rule.

Price history through 2026-10-09 · later test begins Oct 2024

3 SURVIVE

Indicators checked9Popular market rules

Time windows checked54Every rule across every time window

Still worked later3 of 9Worked on prices not used to choose the rule

Did not hold up6Useful for description, not forecasting

Best surviving ruleWhat Bitcoin did last monthAbout 20 days ahead

Later hit rate51%Versus 33% staying invested

Later occasions47From Oct 2024

Extra later return+12.5%Against the broad market result

Current reading5.4Higher than 57% of its history

Strongest link to later price0.162Near zero means little connection

Shortest useful window5 daysAmong surviving rules

Survivors without best2Best rule removed

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Which rules held up?

Every rule had to work on later prices it was not chosen on. All attempted time windows were counted.

Indicator	Verdict	Best window	Link to later price	Right later	Stay invested	Extra return	Later occasions
What Bitcoin did last month	Held up	20 days	0.162	51%	33%	+12.5%	47
How many coins are above trend	Held up	5 days	0.074	48%	43%	+0.3%	66
How differently coins are moving	Held up	10 days	0.028	45%	43%	+2.1%	101
How many coins are overextended	Did not hold up	20 days	0.150	33%	33%	-0.9%	89
How many coins are at a three-month low	Did not hold up	30 days	0.100	34%	30%	+1.6%	229
How violent the last month has been	Did not hold up	20 days	0.077	14%	33%	+0.2%	29
How much the market moves as one	Did not hold up	90 days	0.060	35%	25%	+1.8%	187
How far Bitcoin is below its high	Did not hold up	90 days	0.056	57%	24%	+26.5%	68
How many coins are beating Bitcoin	Did not hold up	5 days	0.033	38%	44%	-1.7%	81

3 of 9 popular indicators still worked on later prices after all 54 tests were counted. The rest may still describe the market, but this record does not support a forecasting claim.

Does one rule carry the story?

Remove the strongest survivor and count again.

All surviving rules3

Without the best2

Without What Bitcoin did last month, 2 indicators still pass.