Signal Autopsy

2 of 9 popular indicators still worked on later prices after all 54 tests were counted.

This page tests popular market rules on later prices, counts every attempted time window and shows when a striking result depends on one rule.

Price history through 2026-10-20 · later test begins Oct 2024

2 SURVIVE

Indicators checked9Popular market rules

Time windows checked54Every rule across every time window

Still worked later2 of 9Worked on prices not used to choose the rule

Did not hold up7Useful for description, not forecasting

Best surviving ruleWhat Bitcoin did last monthAbout 30 days ahead

Later hit rate45%Versus 32% staying invested

Later occasions47From Oct 2024

Extra later return+8.8%Against the broad market result

Current reading0.8Higher than 45% of its history

Strongest link to later price0.156Near zero means little connection

Shortest useful window10 daysAmong surviving rules

Survivors without best1Best rule removed

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Which rules held up?

Every rule had to work on later prices it was not chosen on. All attempted time windows were counted.

Indicator	Verdict	Best window	Link to later price	Right later	Stay invested	Extra return	Later occasions
What Bitcoin did last month	Held up	30 days	0.156	45%	32%	+8.8%	47
How differently coins are moving	Held up	10 days	0.028	43%	42%	+1.7%	105
How many coins are above trend	Did not hold up	20 days	0.156	21%	31%	-3.8%	62
How many coins are overextended	Did not hold up	20 days	0.146	29%	31%	-0.9%	83
How many coins are at a three-month low	Did not hold up	30 days	0.102	33%	30%	+1.2%	228
How violent the last month has been	Did not hold up	20 days	0.077	14%	32%	+0.6%	29
How far Bitcoin is below its high	Did not hold up	90 days	0.064	59%	23%	+29.0%	80
How much the market moves as one	Did not hold up	90 days	0.058	38%	24%	+5.1%	195
How many coins are beating Bitcoin	Did not hold up	5 days	0.027	34%	42%	-1.8%	90

2 of 9 popular indicators still worked on later prices after all 54 tests were counted. The rest may still describe the market, but this record does not support a forecasting claim.

Does one rule carry the story?

Remove the strongest survivor and count again.

All surviving rules2

Without the best1

Without What Bitcoin did last month, 1 indicators still pass.