Rate-Cut Bets or Rate-Hike Bets?
Read the exact rate threshold before calling a contract price cut odds. Then check the trading behind it and the separate bond evidence.
Saved quotes: 2026-09-09 23:10:15 UTC. Bond evidence has an earlier date.
A higher ceiling is not a cut.
Charlie’s view. The 2026-09-16 contract above 3.75% shows a Yes bid of 54.0¢ and an ask of 55.0¢. With the policy ceiling at 3.75%, that is a price for a higher ceiling—not a rate cut. A No outcome could mean hold or cut.
The target range is 3.50–3.75%, confirmed in the 2026-07-29 policy statement. Contract prices below concern the upper end of that range.
Cents per $1 Yes payout. Marks require a positive displayed order size. Above 3.50% displays a 100.0¢ ask without confirmed positive size; it is not drawn as an available trade. Above 4.00% displays a 0.0¢ bid without confirmed positive size; it is not drawn as an available trade.
“No” is not automatically a rate cut.
For the above-3.75% contract, Yes requires a higher ceiling. No covers both an unchanged ceiling and a lower ceiling. For above-3.50%, No requires a ceiling at or below 3.50%. These are different conditions. Neither quote should silently become “the chance of any cut.”
A later meeting’s condition concerns the level after that meeting. It does not say whether the rate changed at that meeting or earlier.
Do later prices have stronger support?
Charlie’s view. Across 6 meetings at the same above-3.75% threshold, 6 have reported 24-hour trading. The 2026-09-16 contract accounts for 99.80% of that reported activity. A higher later price does not establish broader agreement: inspect the spread and order sizes. The later condition concerns the rate after that meeting, not necessarily a rate change at that meeting.
After 2026-09-16: above 3.75%
This requires a higher ceiling than the current target. A displayed price is not a guaranteed outcome.
- Yes bid · buyer offers
- 54.0¢ 29,924.44 contracts shown
- Yes ask · seller requests
- 55.0¢ 28.00 contracts shown
46,976.67 contracts traded in the past 24 hours. Spread: 1.00¢.
Playback steps through saved contracts, not through earlier prices or future outcomes. Orders can be cancelled; a quoted size is not a guarantee of a fill.
| Meeting | Yes bid | Yes ask | Bid contracts | Ask contracts | 24h contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 54.0¢ | 55.0¢ | 29,924.44 | 28.00 | 46,976.67 |
| 2026-10-28 | 62.0¢ | 64.0¢ | 100.00 | 135.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-12-09 | 77.0¢ | 80.0¢ | 73.49 | 181.37 | 85.96 |
| 2027-01-27 | 48.0¢ | 73.0¢ | 11.83 | 114.85 | 0.00 |
| 2027-03-17 | 18.0¢ | 75.0¢ | 22.26 | 39.08 | 10.00 |
| 2027-04-28 | 44.0¢ | 72.0¢ | 23.03 | 15.68 | 0.00 |
Did the bond market back easier rates?
Charlie’s view. In the saved 20-session comparison through 2026-09-04, the two-year yield changed +18.0 basis points and the ten-year changed +13.0. Both yields rose. This is older than the contract snapshot, not a simultaneous confirmation or evidence that one caused the other.
One basis point is 0.01 percentage point. A yield gap can change because either maturity moved. It does not measure how many policy cuts are coming.
20 shared trading sessions ending 2026-09-04. Both signs are shown directly, not renamed “wish” and “reality.”
The overnight rate is a third, different number.
The monthly effective overnight rate was 3.63% in 2026-08, unchanged at displayed precision for 4 consecutive months. Since 2025-09, it changed -59.0 basis points. This is a monthly average of actual overnight rates, not the policy target upper bound or a number of cuts.
Read the archived observations
These dates were preserved from the earlier saved page. Yield-gap readings are sampled, not a complete daily record; no streak count or forecast accuracy is inferred.
| Date | Gap |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | -6.0 bp |
| 2026-07-08 | -6.0 bp |
| 2026-07-13 | -4.0 bp |
| 2026-07-16 | +3.0 bp |
| 2026-07-21 | +10.0 bp |
| 2026-07-24 | +5.0 bp |
| 2026-07-29 | +15.0 bp |
| 2026-08-03 | +10.0 bp |
| 2026-08-06 | +6.0 bp |
| 2026-08-11 | +8.0 bp |
| 2026-08-14 | +14.0 bp |
| 2026-08-19 | +10.0 bp |
| 2026-08-24 | +12.0 bp |
| 2026-08-27 | +2.0 bp |
| 2026-09-01 | -3.0 bp |
| 2026-09-04 | -5.0 bp |
| Month | Rate |
|---|---|
| 2025-09 | 4.22% |
| 2025-10 | 4.09% |
| 2025-11 | 3.88% |
| 2025-12 | 3.72% |
| 2026-01 | 3.64% |
| 2026-02 | 3.64% |
| 2026-03 | 3.64% |
| 2026-04 | 3.64% |
| 2026-05 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06 | 3.63% |
| 2026-07 | 3.63% |
| 2026-08 | 3.63% |
What would change this reading?
A new policy decision changes the baseline. New orders can change the quotes. A fresh yield observation could change the bond comparison. No historical quote archive or matched settlement record is available here, so this page cannot grade forecast accuracy or show that rate expectations caused a crypto move.