Here you will see whether bitcoin's four-year halving cycle is better explained by US money-supply growth arriving on a delay than by the halving clock itself — and where that leaves the current cycle.
Not available tonight — see the data note below.
Updated 23 October 2026 · M2 observed for unavailable tonight · bitcoin price observed 2026-10-21US M2 grows in pulses. Bitcoin's celebrated four-year rhythm may be those pulses arriving late. The chart puts the bitcoin price (log scale) against M2 year-over-year growth; the lag scan then asks exactly how late the echo arrives.
Two one-variable models on identical months. Model A knows only how many days have passed since the last halving. Model B knows only M2 growth at its best scanned lag. The winner is the better explanation of the cycle.
Every cycle drawn from its halving date, log return against days elapsed. The overlay shows how similar the arcs are — the question is whether a supply schedule alone should produce that, or whether an external metronome is conducting.
Everything above, compressed into plain English: what the numbers say right now, what Charlie watches next, and what would prove the whole thesis wrong.
The full plumbing — exact data definitions, model choices, and honest limitations. Nothing below changes a number above; it only explains how the numbers were built.
Research by Ananda Banerjee for Charlie Quant Lab · Updated
