The Copper/Gold
of Crypto
Copper/gold is the macro world's internal risk dial: growth metal over haven metal. ETH/BTC is crypto's version of the same question. If both answer to one real-rate drum, they should rise and fall together — and when they stop agreeing, one of them is lying. This page keeps score.
Updated 08 September 2026 · 20:37 UTC · Prices as of 08 September 2026 · Sources: Yahoo Finance (BTC-USD, ETH-USD, HG=F, GC=F), FRED (DFII10)The divergence gap
Each ratio is z-scored against its own trailing year, then the two z-scores are subtracted. The alarm trips at ±2σ — a level gap can never trigger it, only a genuine disagreement about direction.
Current gap: ETH/BTC minus copper/gold, in standard deviations. The 90-day rolling correlation of their daily changes is -0.06 (full 3-year sample: +0.08). 8 divergence episodes beyond 2σ are on record for this window.
Two dials, one chart
Both ratios rebased to 100 at the start of the window so their shapes are comparable. They will not sit on top of each other — the question is whether they turn at the same times.
When the drumbeat fades
The 90-day rolling correlation of daily ratio changes, then the z-score gap itself with the ±2σ alarm band. Episodes above the band are the rows in the ledger below.
Divergence ledger
Every run of at least three trading days with the gap beyond 2σ: when it opened, when it closed, how wide it got, and which ratio was the rich one.
| Opened | Closed | Days | Widest gap | Rich side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-03-17 | 7 | 2.19σ | Copper/gold rich |
| 2025-03-19 | 2025-03-26 | 8 | 2.38σ | Copper/gold rich |
| 2025-07-31 | 2025-10-28 | 90 | 3.78σ | ETH/BTC rich |
| 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-03 | 5 | 2.18σ | ETH/BTC rich |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-11-20 | 16 | 2.34σ | ETH/BTC rich |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-28 | 5 | 2.26σ | ETH/BTC rich |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-01-29 | 4 | 2.64σ | ETH/BTC rich |
| 2026-06-01 | 2026-08-17 | 78 | 3.23σ | Copper/gold rich |
The real-rate drum, tested
If the one-drum hypothesis holds, changes in the 10-year TIPS yield should lean on both ratios in the same direction. Correlation of daily changes, full sample and latest 90 days, printed side by side so neither window can flatter the story alone.
Methodology & limitations
Limits. ETH/BTC is dominated at times by crypto-internal events (upgrades, ETF flows, staking) that no real rate can explain; copper/gold carries Chinese credit and supply shocks. Front-month copper embeds roll yield. A 90-day window is short enough to be seduced by a single shared shock. Correlation of changes is not co-movement of levels, and neither is causation. If the FRED or price feed fails, the affected section is labelled unavailable — missing data is never shown as zero.
