Crypto and metals

Are crypto and metals telling the same story?

No. They have been moving in opposite directions. Over the last 90 days, ether against bitcoin and copper against gold scored -0.12 for moving together, on a scale from −1 to +1. Right now they are also unusually far apart. Neither reacts clearly to US real interest rates, so there is no sign one force drives both.

Prices as of 23 October 2026 · Updated 23 October 2026 · 04:28 UTC

1. Two ways to measure appetite for risk

Each number compares a risky asset with a safer one. When it rises, people are taking more risk.

Ether ÷ bitcoin0.0294One ether costs 0.0294 bitcoin. When this number rises, people are buying the riskier coin. When it falls, they are moving to bitcoin, the coin most people treat as the safer one.

Copper ÷ gold0.0016Copper is used to build things, so it does well when the economy grows. Gold is what people buy when they are worried. When this number rises, investors expect growth. When it falls, they are playing safe.

2. Do they move together?

No. At -0.12, they have tended to move in opposite directions over the last 90 days. The score runs from −1 (always opposite) to +1 (always together). Over three years it is +0.08.

Ether ÷ bitcoin (start = 100)Copper ÷ gold (start = 100)

Both lines start at 100. Look at whether they turn at the same times, not whether they overlap.

How closely they moved together, each 90 days

3. Are they unusually far apart?

We give each number a score for how unusual it is against its own past year, then take the difference. Past ±2 counts as far apart.

-2.09Unusually far apart

Alarm on. The gap is -2.09, past the ±2 line. Over the last three years the gap was past that line on 31% of days. Right now copper/gold is the one that is unusually high. The table below shows how long past gaps lasted.

Difference between the two scores±2 lines

Every stretch of three trading days or more past ±2 (6 in total)
Started	Ended	Days	Widest gap	Which was higher
2025-03-11	2025-03-28	18	2.43	Copper/gold higher
2025-07-31	2025-10-27	89	3.79	ETH/BTC higher
2025-11-07	2025-11-13	7	2.27	ETH/BTC higher
2026-01-26	2026-01-29	4	2.57	ETH/BTC higher
2026-06-04	2026-08-14	72	3.14	Copper/gold higher
2026-10-19	2026-10-21	3	2.04	Copper/gold higher

4. Is one force pushing both?

The real interest rate was 2.76% on 21 October 2026. It is what the US government pays, after inflation, to borrow for 10 years. When it rises, safe savings pay more, and risky assets often fall. This page tests whether both numbers react to it.

Ether ÷ bitcoin vs the rate · 3 years / 90 days-0.05 / -0.05Over three years, ETH/BTC barely reacts to real interest rates (-0.05). Over the last 90 days: -0.05.

Copper ÷ gold vs the rate · 3 years / 90 days+0.03 / +0.09Over three years, copper/gold barely reacts to real interest rates (+0.03). Over the last 90 days: +0.09.

Result: Neither is clearly tied to real interest rates (ETH/BTC -0.05, copper/gold +0.03), so the shared-cause idea is not supported.

5. What would change the answer

Watch the 90-day score. If it climbs from -0.12 toward +0.3, the two have started moving together and the answer becomes yes. If both start to fall clearly when real interest rates rise, one force is pushing both. If the gap stays past ±2 for weeks, they are telling different stories.