Conviction Board
2 of 6 readings lean positive and 1 lean negative. Removing US dollar, the current average changes from +0.04 to +0.19.
This page keeps six different market readings separate, checks what happened after each one, removes the loudest current input and compares a fixed later-period rule with simply holding Bitcoin.
AGREES
DISAGREES
strong conviction survives the removal of its loudest input
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Which readings have earned attention?
Each reading is tested alone before it is allowed into the combined view.
| Reading | Now | Later result · positive | Later result · negative | Difference | Positive hit rate | Rows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin trend | +0.47 | -1.3% | -12.6% | +11.3 pts | 45.9% | 222 |
| US dollar | -0.71 | +2.1% | -5.5% | +7.7 pts | 52.4% | 147 |
| Futures cost | -0.06 | +3.6% | -2.5% | +6.1 pts | 57.9% | 19 |
| Stablecoin supply | +0.02 | -1.5% | -6.3% | +4.8 pts | 43.6% | 220 |
| Equity stress | +0.14 | -2.2% | -3.2% | +1.0 pts | 40.7% | 162 |
| Technology shares | +0.41 | -3.9% | +4.8% | -8.8 pts | 34.0% | 194 |
2 of 6 readings lean positive and 1 lean negative. Removing US dollar, the current average changes from +0.04 to +0.19.
Did the rule work later?
The later 40% of the record was held back. A small cost is charged whenever the rule changes position.
This is a historical stress test, not a promise about the next move.