Conviction Board
1 of 6 readings lean positive and 4 lean negative. Removing Bitcoin trend, the current average changes from -0.13 to -0.24.
This page keeps six different market readings separate, checks what happened after each one, removes the loudest current input and compares a fixed later-period rule with simply holding Bitcoin.
AGREES
DISAGREES
strong conviction survives the removal of its loudest input
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Which readings have earned attention?
Each reading is tested alone before it is allowed into the combined view.
| Reading | Now | Later result · positive | Later result · negative | Difference | Positive hit rate | Rows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin trend | +0.44 | -1.3% | -14.4% | +13.1 pts | 46.8% | 216 |
| US dollar | -0.43 | +1.3% | -6.3% | +7.6 pts | 51.3% | 150 |
| Stablecoin supply | -0.27 | -2.0% | -9.5% | +7.5 pts | 43.8% | 217 |
| Futures cost | -0.17 | +3.6% | -3.3% | +6.9 pts | 57.9% | 19 |
| Equity stress | -0.32 | -2.5% | -3.8% | +1.3 pts | 39.6% | 164 |
| Technology shares | -0.02 | -4.7% | +4.8% | -9.6 pts | 33.5% | 194 |
1 of 6 readings lean positive and 4 lean negative. Removing Bitcoin trend, the current average changes from -0.13 to -0.24.
Did the rule work later?
The later 40% of the record was held back. A small cost is charged whenever the rule changes position.
This is a historical stress test, not a promise about the next move.