AI Coins vs Nvidia: Is the Gain Broad?
Compare three tracked AI coins with Nvidia over the same completed market sessions, then check whether one coin carries the result.
The three-coin basket returned +26.48% over 20 sessions, versus Nvidia +2.84%. 3 of the 3 coins beat Nvidia.
2026-08-11 → 2026-09-09
Fixed watchlist: FET, TAO, RENDER. Scheduled stock-close comparison; crypto quoted in USDT.
Start with the same amount in each coin.
FET, TAO and RENDER each get one third of the starting amount. The weights restart at each comparison window, then drift with prices. This is a fixed watchlist, not an index of every AI token.
Zero is the centre. A bar to the left is a loss; to the right, a gain.
Charlie’s view. Against Bitcoin, 2 of 3 coins won; against SMH, 3 of 3 won. Nvidia and a semiconductor fund are different comparisons. SMH can hold Nvidia, so they are not independent evidence.
Does one coin carry the result?
Each bar shows its contribution to the basket return. The signed values add to the basket’s total. Turn off one coin to recalculate the remaining pair at equal starting weights.
Zero is the centre. A bar to the left is a loss; to the right, a gain.
Contribution units: percentage points of the basket return.
All three: +26.48%; Nvidia +2.84%.
Charlie’s view. The lead survives without TAO: the remaining pair returns +25.10%, +22.26 percentage points versus Nvidia. The median coin returned +28.95%; the mean was +26.48%.
Does the answer change with the window?
| Completed sessions | Basket | Nvidia | Coins ahead | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | +11.02% | +2.87% | 3 / 3 | 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-09 |
| 10 | +4.49% | +4.98% | 1 / 3 | 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-09 |
| 20 | +26.48% | +2.84% | 3 / 3 | 2026-08-11 → 2026-09-09 |
Charlie’s view. The short and long windows overlap. They show how the holding period changes the answer, not three independent confirmations. A different starting date can change which coin leads.
A stock price is not a factory’s output.
This page measures investment prices. It does not measure GPU shipments, company revenue, token revenue, AI usage or public attention. The separate AGI Attention Trade asks about attention.
Keep the clock and currency in view.
Equity closing prices are assigned to the scheduled Nasdaq session end. Each crypto observation is the hourly closing price immediately before that boundary, not proof of the same executed-trade time. Intervals span 24–96 hours because crypto keeps trading when stocks close.
Equities use USD; crypto uses USDT. Dollar-peg changes can affect their comparison. These are reported price returns, excluding cash dividends, staking rewards and costs. The reviewed calendar covers 2026 only.
No historical follow-up signal is claimed from this short aligned record. Removing the best performer uses hindsight: it tests dependence, not a strategy.
Ask what carries the return.
Name a tracked asset, choose 5, 10 or 20 sessions, or remove one coin. Answers use this saved edition.